As the fourth Wednesday count day has come and gone this year, many
school administrators are wondering, where have all the children gone? Michigan’s challenging economy combined with the past five to ten years of lower birth rates in Michigan don’t really seem to account for the declines most school districts experienced this fall.
In Port Huron Schools, the initial count last week was 282 students below last year’s fall enrollment (11,242). This is cause for concern when it’s combined with the drop of 314 students from the fall of 2006 compared to 2005. That means in three years the total decline is approximately 700 students.
Each spring districts are challenged to accurately project the number of students to be enrolled the following fall to be utilized for developing the preliminary budget and teaching staff allocations. Unfortunately, the State funding based on pupil enrollment is really an impossible issue for school districts.
When Port Huron Schools loses 300 students, from 21 school buildings, the average loss is really about 14 students per school building. If this is broken down to one or two students per grade level, it is difficult to make a reduction based on staffing. In a school district with 2,500 students and five school buildings, a drop of 50 students may represent about 10 students per school. In both of these examples, it is impossible to reduce teaching staff to match the total declining enrollment as the decline is not typically at one grade level or one building.
To better analyze and predict enrollment, the data must be reviewed. Using the student accounting software many districts have available, staff can assess where each student has gone. Have students moved out of state or dropped out of school altogether? A comparison of kindergarten class sizes to the prior year graduating senior class size will also shed light on the direction of student trends. In our area, the actual number of students/families leaving Michigan is surprisingly high.
Another area to review is the impact of both charter schools and schools of choice. Where is the oversight for these options? Some areas throughout the State have seen a tremendous loss of students to charters, especially urban school districts. At times this occurs due to socioeconomic or racial undercurrents. These student reductions may happen with little notice and it can be difficult to gain information about how many students actually left for a charter school. Schools of choice can be a problem as well, accounting for significant student losses. In southeast Michigan, some school districts have been very active in marketing school of choice options and program features that set their district apart. Given that most districts are declining, marketing and creative efforts will probably continue.
In order to be successful in the long run, with declining enrollment over several years, and little ability to address the issues on a short term basis, long term planning is critical. An enrollment projection professional can provide assistance to school districts as they monitor and project their student populations. These forecasts are necessary to determine what district facility needs will be in the future.