Michigan's pupil count for fall 2007 came in almost 12,000 students fewer than estimates used for the State budget. The estimate for fall 2007-08 was 1,665,600 students. The actual count was recently set at 1,653,850. The 2006-07 actual count was 1,681,062 students.
The graph of Michigan's pupil population since 1994 looks like three quarters of a bell shaped curve. In 1994 we had 1,583,357 students. The numbers grew until 2003 when we peaked at 1,714,867 and we've declined each year since with the largest drop coming in the last year.
The implications of this reduction are fairly obvious:
- Many Michigan school districts (60%+) have declining enrollment and that means declining revenues.
- Fewer students means reduced costs to the state. Because of a reduction in students, the 2007-08 State Aid appropriation is actually modestly less than in 2006-07.
- This decline, in conjunction with recent census data showing a net decline in population of 30,000 between 2006 and 2007 for Michigan, points to a continuing loss of students in the immediate future. Schools should discuss declining enrollment and its implications openly with staff and community.
This chart of Historical Blended Pupil Memberships from the Senate Fiscal Agency reflects the downward trend in enrollment statewide. Enrollment for Fall 2007 was estimated at 1,665,600. Actual enrollment was 1,653,850, 11,750 fewer students than expected.